The share if it happens. The share otherwise.
Pick a market → YES or NO → paid in the stock. First trade →
Markets
“thin”: under $20 on offer at that price
COIN$169 today
- Resolves 1 Nov 2026 · 18% chanceif Bitcoin dips to $75,000 in October 2026YES4.7×thinNO1.15×
- Resolves 1 Jan 2027 · 23% chanceif Bitcoin reaches $100,000 in 2026YES4.2×thinNO1.27×
- Resolves 1 Nov 2026 · 11% chanceif Ethereum reaches $2,800 in October 2026YES6.9×thinNO1.07×
- Resolves 1 Jan 2027 · 9.5% chanceif Bitcoin dips to $55,000 in 2026YES9.7×thinNO1.09×thin
- Resolves 1 Jan 2027 · 8.3% chanceif Ethereum dips to $1,500 in 2026YES10×thinNO1.08×thin
- Resolves 1 Jan 2027 · 5.2% chanceif the CLARITY Act is signed into law in 2026YES17×thinNO1.04×thin
SPYM$90.71 today
- Resolves 5 Jan 2027 · 37% chanceif Republicans win the Senate in 2026YES2.6×NO1.54×
- Resolves 29 Oct 2026 · 15% chanceif the Fed raises rates 25 bps at its October 2026 meetingYES5.5×thinNO1.12×
- Resolves 15 Jan 2027 · 25% chanceif the 10-year Treasury yield reaches 5.5% in 2026YES3.3×thinNO1.26×thin
- Resolves late Jan 2027 · 6.5% chanceif the US enters a recession by end of 2026YES13×thinNO1.05×
MSTR$137 today
- Resolves 1 Jan 2027 · 37% chanceif Bitcoin dips to $70,000 in 2026Prices imply $139 if it happens (+1%) · $136 otherwiseYES2.6×thinNO1.55×thin
- Resolves 1 Jan 2027 · 37% chanceif Bitcoin reaches $95,000 in 2026YES2.6×thinNO1.54×thin
- Resolves 1 Jan 2027 · 93.5% chanceif MSCI removes MicroStrategy from its World or USA index in 2026YES1.02×thinNO9.0×thin
SPCX$147 today
- Resolves 1 Jan 2027 · 18% chanceif a Tesla–SpaceX merger is announced in 2026YES4.7×thinNO1.16×thin
TSM$423 today
- Resolves 1 Jan 2027 · 2.1% chanceif China blockades Taiwan in 2026YES38×thinNO1.01×thin
- Resolves 1 Jan 2027 · 2.1% chanceif China invades Taiwan in 2026No offersNo offers
Details: about these numbers
“YES pays 2.4×”: a YES share costs 0.40 of a share and pays one share, less a small fee, if it happens. NO is the same for “otherwise”. Multiples are rounded down, from the best offer.
When prices disagree with the outside odds (Polymarket or Limitless) by 1% or more, a line under the question says what they imply the share is worth if it happens and otherwise. Our own maker sets most prices today: read these as estimates, never as a quote. How it works