Resolves 1 Jan 2027 · 73 days

MSTR if MSCI removes MicroStrategy from its World or USA index in 2026

Resolves 1 Jan 2027 · 73 days

93.5%Chance from Polymarket ↗6.5%

Pick YES or NO

Signal: none yet — prices match Polymarket

The prices match Polymarket’s odds ↗ (93.5%), so they imply today’s price either way. A gap shows once someone disagrees.

The signal over time

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Details

How it’s derived

A YES share pays one MSTR if it happens and nothing otherwise, so its price is roughly the chance it happens times what MSTR would be worth then. Divide out the chance and what is left is the market’s value of MSTR given that it happens. The same for NO, with the chance it doesn’t.

If it happens: YES 0.935 (mid) ÷ P 0.935 = 1.00× spot ≈ $137
Otherwise: NO 0.0650 ÷ (1 − P) 0.0650 = 1.00× spot ≈ $137

How far to trust it

Chance (P): 93.5% from Polymarket, as of just now. It is a reference: not traded here, settles nothing here. Their book: bid 92.0%, ask 95.0% (3.0 points wide).
Leg prices: The midpoint of this book: YES 0.935 MSTR (bid 0.890, ask 0.980, 9.0 points wide); NO is the rest of one share.
Spot: $137 from the token’s on-chain pool price times Chainlink’s BTC/USD. It only turns the multiples into dollars.
Updated: Just now; refreshed every 20 seconds.
Sensitivity: One point of P moves the “otherwise” value by about 15%.

Order book

Price (MSTR)Shares

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Recent trades

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Rules

Settled on UMA ↗

Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31?

Full rules and settlement

This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy is removed from either the MSCI World Index or the MSCI USA Index at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” If MicroStrategy is transferred between indexes (e.g., from MSCI World to another MSCI index), that will also count as a removal for the purposes of this market. An official MSCI announcement of removal or transfer will be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution. The resolution source will be official MSCI communication or a consensus of credible reporting.

How it settles

1
Deadline · 1 Jan 2027
The words above are frozen on chain.
2
Anyone proposes the answer
With a 500 USDC bond on UMA.
3
24h to dispute
Undisputed, it settles; a second dispute goes to a UMA vote.
4
Redeem
The winning leg redeems for one MSTR.

Contracts and settlement

This question mirrors the Polymarket market "Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31?" (https://polymarket.com/event/will-microstrategy-be-delisted-from-the-msci-index-by-march-31, Polygon conditionId 0x1f2f8b7de407213b780d16021977b90cea238c9787d07957133569ac83aa0b3b). Its rules are copied verbatim below as published on 2026-09-30; wherever they say "this market", they mean that Polymarket market.

Nobody can edit the frozen words, including Polymarket. The proposer posts a 500 USDC bond plus UMA’s 250 USDC final fee, both returned if their answer stands, on UMA, the oracle Polymarket also uses, through the same adapter contract Polymarket uses, unmodified. A first dispute re-opens the question; a second goes to UMA’s token-holder vote, and whoever was wrong loses their bond: if you hold a leg a wrong answer would hurt, the dispute window is yours.

Emergency override: the adapter’s admin can flag a question and resolve it manually one hour later, with any payout, over whatever UMA said. That power exists in Polymarket’s adapter as deployed (0x006B05…19e665 (opens in a new tab)).

Polymarket’s own result has no effect here. The two are expected to agree because the wording is the same.

Oracle: 0x006B05…19e665 (opens in a new tab)
Question id: 0x48f83bb3e3fd97c65ae07b042b132b3f42e266f16f5ec4705c4011089ec21e85
Condition: 0xda5489d995ec83effbc81fa54a90e5f8405fda8a1c628a32d3afc003c9a78675
Exchange: 0xAAf98C…dd2e78 (opens in a new tab)
Collateral: wtMSTR (opens in a new tab)

Settles through Polymarket's UMA adapter (unmodified) on UMA's Optimistic Oracle. The question text is frozen on chain and copies Polymarket's rules word for word. After the deadline anyone can propose the answer with a 500 USDC bond plus UMA's 250 USDC final fee (both returned if the answer stands); undisputed for 24h it settles, disputed it goes to UMA's token-holder vote. Polymarket's own result has no effect here. The adapter's admin can flag an unresolved question and resolve it manually one hour later — an emergency override over UMA's answer, disclosed because it exists.
The Polymarket probability shown is for reference only. It is not traded here and does not settle anything here.
wtMSTR is an upgradeable token controlled by its issuer. Every position here depends on it.
Dividends accrue into wtMSTR as backing and flow to whichever leg wins. These legs decompose total return, not price.
A contingent claim on a security is a derivative on a security. This is a proof of concept.