Resolves 1 Jan 2027 · 73 days

SPCX if a Tesla–SpaceX merger is announced in 2026

Resolves 1 Jan 2027 · 73 days

Pick YES or NO

Signal: none yet — prices match Polymarket

The prices match Polymarket’s odds ↗ (17.5%), so they imply today’s price either way. A gap shows once someone disagrees.

The signal over time

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Details

How it’s derived

A YES share pays one SPCX if it happens and nothing otherwise, so its price is roughly the chance it happens times what SPCX would be worth then. Divide out the chance and what is left is the market’s value of SPCX given that it happens. The same for NO, with the chance it doesn’t.

If it happens: YES 0.175 (mid) ÷ P 0.175 = 1.00× spot ≈ $147
Otherwise: NO 0.825 ÷ (1 − P) 0.825 = 1.00× spot ≈ $147

How far to trust it

Chance (P): 17.5% from Polymarket, as of just now. It is a reference: not traded here, settles nothing here. Their book: bid 17.0%, ask 18.0% (1.0 points wide).
Leg prices: The midpoint of this book: YES 0.175 SPCX (bid 0.140, ask 0.210, 7.0 points wide); NO is the rest of one share.
Spot: $147 from a DEX route quote of the token into USDC on Base. It only turns the multiples into dollars.
Updated: Just now; refreshed every 20 seconds.
Sensitivity: One point of P moves the “if it happens” value by about 6%.

Order book

Price (SPCX)Shares

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Recent trades

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Rules

Settled on UMA ↗

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?

Full rules and settlement

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How it settles

1
Deadline · 1 Jan 2027
The words above are frozen on chain.
2
Anyone proposes the answer
With a 500 USDC bond on UMA.
3
24h to dispute
Undisputed, it settles; a second dispute goes to a UMA vote.
4
Redeem
The winning leg redeems for one SPCX.

Contracts and settlement

This question mirrors the Polymarket market "Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?" (https://polymarket.com/event/tesla-and-spacex-merger-officially-announced-by-june-30, Polygon conditionId 0x85647246dede70416c9c71ea851d87facf4b5efe58c685f4acc5ea94a9487c10). Its rules are copied verbatim below as published on 2026-09-30; wherever they say "this market", they mean that Polymarket market.

Nobody can edit the frozen words, including Polymarket. The proposer posts a 500 USDC bond plus UMA’s 250 USDC final fee, both returned if their answer stands, on UMA, the oracle Polymarket also uses, through the same adapter contract Polymarket uses, unmodified. A first dispute re-opens the question; a second goes to UMA’s token-holder vote, and whoever was wrong loses their bond: if you hold a leg a wrong answer would hurt, the dispute window is yours.

Emergency override: the adapter’s admin can flag a question and resolve it manually one hour later, with any payout, over whatever UMA said. That power exists in Polymarket’s adapter as deployed (0x006B05…19e665 (opens in a new tab)).

Polymarket’s own result has no effect here. The two are expected to agree because the wording is the same.

Oracle: 0x006B05…19e665 (opens in a new tab)
Question id: 0x184357282d6b72dab7de616f40d4b7ad8d5124ae53c6504b74eef567b93dfbd4
Condition: 0x7deb9718cbc98930c6664600979e9f8cd3103e2980f9cd315db1242391d61b64
Exchange: 0x443775…571eBf (opens in a new tab)
Collateral: wtSPCX (opens in a new tab)

Settles through Polymarket's UMA adapter (unmodified) on UMA's Optimistic Oracle. The question text is frozen on chain and copies Polymarket's rules word for word. After the deadline anyone can propose the answer with a 500 USDC bond plus UMA's 250 USDC final fee (both returned if the answer stands); undisputed for 24h it settles, disputed it goes to UMA's token-holder vote. Polymarket's own result has no effect here. The adapter's admin can flag an unresolved question and resolve it manually one hour later — an emergency override over UMA's answer, disclosed because it exists.
The Polymarket probability shown is for reference only. It is not traded here and does not settle anything here.
wtSPCX is an upgradeable token controlled by its issuer. Every position here depends on it.
Dividends accrue into wtSPCX as backing and flow to whichever leg wins. These legs decompose total return, not price.
A contingent claim on a security is a derivative on a security. This is a proof of concept.