How does a prediction market settle?
Markets here settle on UMA, an independent oracle, and pay the winning side in tokenized stock. The October 2026 Fed market, step by step:
- Done: YES and NO tradeUntil the Fed meetsThe market →
- Done: The Fed decidesWed 28 Oct, 18:00 UTCStatement ↗ (opens in a new tab)
- Done: NO proposed on UMA750 USDC bond, returned if it standsProof ↗ (opens in a new tab)
- Now: 24-hour dispute window
- Next: Final unless disputedThu 29 Oct, 20:06 UTC
- Next: Winners redeem 1:1 for SPYMGas: about $0.05 of ETH on BaseYour position →
What is UMA’s dispute window?
The 24 hours after an answer is proposed. Anyone who thinks it is wrong can dispute it by posting the same bond; otherwise the answer stands.
What if someone disputes?
A first dispute sends the question back for a new answer. A second goes to a vote of UMA token holders, which takes about 48–96 hours. Whoever was wrong loses their bond.
Another market, already paid
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 between Sep 28 and Oct 4, 2026? Resolved NO · pays 1 MSTR per NO share · settled on UMA ↗ (opens in a new tab)