Resolves 1 Jan 2027 · 73 days

TSM if China blockades Taiwan in 2026

Resolves 1 Jan 2027 · 73 days

2.1%Chance from Polymarket ↗97.9%

Amount

If it happens—

OtherwiseNothing

YES38×

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Paid out by a verified contract

Shares contract ↗ (opens in a new tab) · Exchange ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Paid out before: Bitcoin reaches $88,000 between Sep 28 and Oct 4, 2026 resolved NO; our test wallet redeemed its NO shares on chain. Payout transaction ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Min $0.01 · Pays in TSM (tokenized, on Base) · Fund with USDC or TSM

Fills now or not at all; the signature expires in 10 minutes. TSM here is wtTSM on Base; dollars at $423.20 today.

Signal: none yet — prices match Polymarket

The prices match Polymarket’s odds ↗ (2.1%), so they imply today’s price either way. A gap shows once someone disagrees.

The signal over time

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Details

How it’s derived

A YES share pays one TSM if it happens and nothing otherwise, so its price is roughly the chance it happens times what TSM would be worth then. Divide out the chance and what is left is the market’s value of TSM given that it happens. The same for NO, with the chance it doesn’t.

If it happens: YES 0.0210 (mid) ÷ P 0.0210 = 1.00× spot ≈ $423
Otherwise: NO 0.979 ÷ (1 − P) 0.979 = 1.00× spot ≈ $423

How far to trust it

Chance (P): 2.1% from Polymarket, as of 11s ago. It is a reference: not traded here, settles nothing here. Their book: bid 1.8%, ask 2.4% (0.6 points wide).
Leg prices: The midpoint of this book: YES 0.021 TSM (bid 0.016, ask 0.026, 1.0 points wide); NO is the rest of one share.
Spot: $423 from a DEX route quote of the token into USDC on Base. It only turns the multiples into dollars.
Updated: 11s ago; refreshed every 20 seconds.
Low probability: At 2.1%, one point of P moves the “if it happens” value by about 48%. Read it as a direction, not a price.

Order book

Price (TSM)Shares

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Recent trades

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Rules

Settled on UMA ↗

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

Full rules and settlement

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an aerial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying blockade is: - Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours. - Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa). - Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied. A qualifying blockade is not: - Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access). - Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure). - Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement. - Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan. - Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

How it settles

1
Deadline · 1 Jan 2027
The words above are frozen on chain.
2
Anyone proposes the answer
With a 500 USDC bond on UMA.
3
24h to dispute
Undisputed, it settles; a second dispute goes to a UMA vote.
4
Redeem
The winning leg redeems for one TSM.

Contracts and settlement

This question mirrors the Polymarket market "Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?" (https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-blockade-taiwan-by-in-2026, Polygon conditionId 0x96498c10c79ecaafa2bbb92ada36c7ff617913b03d9220f8c95ce7d6776a0b0c). Its rules are copied verbatim below as published on 2026-10-08; wherever they say "this market", they mean that Polymarket market.

Nobody can edit the frozen words, including Polymarket. The proposer posts a 500 USDC bond plus UMA’s 250 USDC final fee, both returned if their answer stands, on UMA, the oracle Polymarket also uses, through the same adapter contract Polymarket uses, unmodified. A first dispute re-opens the question; a second goes to UMA’s token-holder vote, and whoever was wrong loses their bond: if you hold a leg a wrong answer would hurt, the dispute window is yours.

Emergency override: the adapter’s admin can flag a question and resolve it manually one hour later, with any payout, over whatever UMA said. That power exists in Polymarket’s adapter as deployed (0x006B05…19e665 (opens in a new tab)).

Polymarket’s own result has no effect here. The two are expected to agree because the wording is the same.

Oracle: 0x006B05…19e665 (opens in a new tab)
Question id: 0x5a2da0f2926b9b5d0d2fe8cfdf0892804a343893127694be00d502369f8c95ad
Condition: 0xecb252f016d9cc2e31de3e1f0761bad6375e0dfcb1c6a70e6e7c6c021a528538
Exchange: 0x1a8602…CD4785 (opens in a new tab)
Collateral: wtTSM (opens in a new tab)

Settles through Polymarket's UMA adapter (unmodified) on UMA's Optimistic Oracle. The question text is frozen on chain and copies Polymarket's rules word for word. After the deadline anyone can propose the answer with a 500 USDC bond plus UMA's 250 USDC final fee (both returned if the answer stands); undisputed for 24h it settles, disputed it goes to UMA's token-holder vote. Polymarket's own result has no effect here. The adapter's admin can flag an unresolved question and resolve it manually one hour later — an emergency override over UMA's answer, disclosed because it exists.
The Polymarket probability shown is for reference only. It is not traded here and does not settle anything here.
wtTSM is an upgradeable token controlled by its issuer. Every position here depends on it.
Dividends accrue into wtTSM as backing and flow to whichever leg wins. These legs decompose total return, not price.
A contingent claim on a security is a derivative on a security. This is a proof of concept.