Answer expected by late January 2027 · 103 days

SPYM if the US enters a recession by end of 2026

Answer expected by late January 2027 · 103 days

6.5%Chance from Polymarket ↗93.5%

Amount

If it happens—

OtherwiseNothing

YES13×

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Paid out by a verified contract

Shares contract ↗ (opens in a new tab) · Exchange ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Paid out before: Bitcoin reaches $88,000 between Sep 28 and Oct 4, 2026 resolved NO; our test wallet redeemed its NO shares on chain. Payout transaction ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Min $0.01 · Pays in SPYM (tokenized, on Base) · Fund with USDC or SPYM

Fills now or not at all; the signature expires in 10 minutes. SPYM here is wtSPYM on Base; dollars at $90.71 today.

Signal: none yet — prices match Polymarket

The prices match Polymarket’s odds ↗ (6.5%), so they imply today’s price either way. A gap shows once someone disagrees.

The signal over time

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Details

How it’s derived

A YES share pays one SPYM if it happens and nothing otherwise, so its price is roughly the chance it happens times what SPYM would be worth then. Divide out the chance and what is left is the market’s value of SPYM given that it happens. The same for NO, with the chance it doesn’t.

If it happens: YES 0.0650 (mid) ÷ P 0.0650 = 1.00× spot ≈ $90.71
Otherwise: NO 0.935 ÷ (1 − P) 0.935 = 1.00× spot ≈ $90.71

How far to trust it

Chance (P): 6.5% from Polymarket, as of 17s ago. It is a reference: not traded here, settles nothing here. Their book: bid 6.0%, ask 7.0% (1.0 points wide).
Leg prices: The midpoint of this book: YES 0.065 SPYM (bid 0.055, ask 0.075, 2.0 points wide); NO is the rest of one share.
Spot: $90.71 from a DEX route quote of the token into USDC on Base. It only turns the multiples into dollars.
Updated: 17s ago; refreshed every 20 seconds.
Sensitivity: One point of P moves the “if it happens” value by about 15%.

Order book

Price (SPYM)Shares

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Recent trades

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Rules

Settled on UMA ↗

US recession by end of 2026?

Full rules and settlement

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

How it settles

1
Deadline · 1 Jul 2027
Answer expected by late January 2027. The words above are frozen on chain.
2
Anyone proposes the answer
With a 500 USDC bond on UMA.
3
24h to dispute
Undisputed, it settles; a second dispute goes to a UMA vote.
4
Redeem
The winning leg redeems for one SPYM.

Contracts and settlement

This question mirrors the Polymarket market "US recession by end of 2026?" (https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-by-end-of-2026, Polygon conditionId 0xfdc73f10edf0266756686f35b5712cffa828b0940fc015e0426c76c934c2105d). Its rules are copied verbatim below as published on 2026-10-08; wherever they say "this market", they mean that Polymarket market.

The answer is expected by late January 2027, when the BEA's advance estimate of Q4 2026 GDP is published; the deadline is the latest the rules allow. Nobody can edit the frozen words, including Polymarket. The proposer posts a 500 USDC bond plus UMA’s 250 USDC final fee, both returned if their answer stands, on UMA, the oracle Polymarket also uses, through the same adapter contract Polymarket uses, unmodified. A first dispute re-opens the question; a second goes to UMA’s token-holder vote, and whoever was wrong loses their bond: if you hold a leg a wrong answer would hurt, the dispute window is yours.

Emergency override: the adapter’s admin can flag a question and resolve it manually one hour later, with any payout, over whatever UMA said. That power exists in Polymarket’s adapter as deployed (0x006B05…19e665 (opens in a new tab)).

Polymarket’s own result has no effect here. The two are expected to agree because the wording is the same.

Oracle: 0x006B05…19e665 (opens in a new tab)
Question id: 0xa1bc81772fafa4413d1bcaf9d380a2e194fd422d18b3ab61bd76fa5017ac7c70
Condition: 0x9b17e8971652466c19a102c4c24e11f7840c9e2fdb70126ded3c563f7dad02c0
Exchange: 0x74E465…f7d4C7 (opens in a new tab)
Collateral: wtSPYM (opens in a new tab)

Settles through Polymarket's UMA adapter (unmodified) on UMA's Optimistic Oracle. The question text is frozen on chain and copies Polymarket's rules word for word. After the deadline anyone can propose the answer with a 500 USDC bond plus UMA's 250 USDC final fee (both returned if the answer stands); undisputed for 24h it settles, disputed it goes to UMA's token-holder vote. Polymarket's own result has no effect here. The adapter's admin can flag an unresolved question and resolve it manually one hour later — an emergency override over UMA's answer, disclosed because it exists.
The Polymarket probability shown is for reference only. It is not traded here and does not settle anything here.
wtSPYM is an upgradeable token controlled by its issuer. Every position here depends on it.
Dividends accrue into wtSPYM as backing and flow to whichever leg wins. These legs decompose total return, not price.
A contingent claim on a security is a derivative on a security. This is a proof of concept.