Resolves 29 Oct 2026 · 9 days

SPYM if the Fed raises rates 25 bps at its October 2026 meeting

Resolves 29 Oct 2026 · 9 days

15%Chance from Polymarket ↗85%

Amount

Otherwise—

If it happensNothing

NO1.12×

No wallet in this browser? or open in MetaMask.

Paid out by a verified contract

Shares contract ↗ (opens in a new tab) · Exchange ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Paid out before: Bitcoin reaches $88,000 between Sep 28 and Oct 4, 2026 resolved NO; our test wallet redeemed its NO shares on chain. Payout transaction ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Min $0.01 · Pays in SPYM (tokenized, on Base) · Fund with USDC or SPYM

Fills now or not at all; the signature expires in 10 minutes. SPYM here is wtSPYM on Base; dollars at $90.71 today.

Signal: none yet — prices match Polymarket

The prices match Polymarket’s odds ↗ (14.5%), so they imply today’s price either way. A gap shows once someone disagrees.

The signal over time

Loading the history…

Details

How it’s derived

A YES share pays one SPYM if it happens and nothing otherwise, so its price is roughly the chance it happens times what SPYM would be worth then. Divide out the chance and what is left is the market’s value of SPYM given that it happens. The same for NO, with the chance it doesn’t.

If it happens: YES 0.144 (mid) ÷ P 0.145 = 0.99× spot ≈ $90.21
Otherwise: NO 0.856 ÷ (1 − P) 0.855 = 1.00× spot ≈ $90.79

How far to trust it

Chance (P): 14.5% from Polymarket, as of just now. It is a reference: not traded here, settles nothing here. Their book: bid 14.0%, ask 15.0% (1.0 points wide).
Leg prices: The midpoint of this book: YES 0.144 SPYM (bid 0.109, ask 0.179, 7.0 points wide); NO is the rest of one share.
Spot: $90.71 from a DEX route quote of the token into USDC on Base. It only turns the multiples into dollars.
Updated: Just now; refreshed every 20 seconds.
Sensitivity: One point of P moves the “if it happens” value by about 7%.

Order book

Price (SPYM)Shares

Loading the book…

Recent trades

Loading recent trades…

Rules

Settled on UMA ↗

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Full rules and settlement

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

How it settles

1
Deadline · 29 Oct 2026
The words above are frozen on chain.
2
Anyone proposes the answer
With a 500 USDC bond on UMA.
3
24h to dispute
Undisputed, it settles; a second dispute goes to a UMA vote.
4
Redeem
The winning leg redeems for one SPYM.

Contracts and settlement

This question mirrors the Polymarket market "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?" (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537, Polygon conditionId 0x12aa13b3da17ceae1b0a59b5d5b77121e91bb79b4bb0b52bf6543ed3f8d0953b). Its rules are copied verbatim below as published on 2026-10-08; wherever they say "this market", they mean that Polymarket market.

Nobody can edit the frozen words, including Polymarket. The proposer posts a 500 USDC bond plus UMA’s 250 USDC final fee, both returned if their answer stands, on UMA, the oracle Polymarket also uses, through the same adapter contract Polymarket uses, unmodified. A first dispute re-opens the question; a second goes to UMA’s token-holder vote, and whoever was wrong loses their bond: if you hold a leg a wrong answer would hurt, the dispute window is yours.

Emergency override: the adapter’s admin can flag a question and resolve it manually one hour later, with any payout, over whatever UMA said. That power exists in Polymarket’s adapter as deployed (0x006B05…19e665 (opens in a new tab)).

Polymarket’s own result has no effect here. The two are expected to agree because the wording is the same.

Oracle: 0x006B05…19e665 (opens in a new tab)
Question id: 0xef24fe3b8f21d4b36de9bff9eff18b0dd0811f6edab2fad085205cda1cd5d0c3
Condition: 0xd7a8a3adbf572f4bcac90f9341f599c87f605a72932e53462eb1144950eff4a4
Exchange: 0x74E465…f7d4C7 (opens in a new tab)
Collateral: wtSPYM (opens in a new tab)

Settles through Polymarket's UMA adapter (unmodified) on UMA's Optimistic Oracle. The question text is frozen on chain and copies Polymarket's rules word for word. After the deadline anyone can propose the answer with a 500 USDC bond plus UMA's 250 USDC final fee (both returned if the answer stands); undisputed for 24h it settles, disputed it goes to UMA's token-holder vote. Polymarket's own result has no effect here. The adapter's admin can flag an unresolved question and resolve it manually one hour later — an emergency override over UMA's answer, disclosed because it exists.
The Polymarket probability shown is for reference only. It is not traded here and does not settle anything here.
wtSPYM is an upgradeable token controlled by its issuer. Every position here depends on it.
Dividends accrue into wtSPYM as backing and flow to whichever leg wins. These legs decompose total return, not price.
A contingent claim on a security is a derivative on a security. This is a proof of concept.