Otherwise.
Closes 29 Oct 2026 · 3 days

SPYM if the Fed raises rates 25 bps at its October 2026 meeting

5.5%Chance from Polymarket ↗94.5%

Paid in SPYM stock

$3.47 available now
If it happens15× what you spend0.3343 SPYM≈ $29.80 today15× what you spend if the Fed raises rates 25 bps at its October 2026 meeting
OtherwiseNothing

You spend $1.95 ·

YES

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Paid out by a verified contract: the contracts, and this order

Shares contract ↗ (opens in a new tab) · Exchange ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Paid out before: Bitcoin reaches $88,000 between Sep 28 and Oct 4, 2026 resolved NO; our test wallet redeemed its NO shares on chain. Payout transaction ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Min $0.01 · Pays in SPYM (tokenized, on Base) · Fund with USDC or SPYM

Pay at most0.02244 SPYM$2.00
At today’s offers0.021786 SPYMavg 0.0645
Price cap0.0664 SPYMPolymarket 0.055most a share can cost
Fee0.003378 YES shares1%

Avg 0.0645 SPYM a share (≈ $5.74)

Fills now or not at all; the signature expires in 10 minutes. SPYM here is wtSPYM on Base; dollars at $89.12 today.

Order fields
side
0 (buy)
tokenId
113353491735908060943276567618720548013511980648323416349705941640762162773974 (YES of this market)
makerAmount
22439949255000000 = 0.022439949255 wtSPYM, the most you pay
takerAmount
337773000000000000 = 0.337773 YES, what you buy
feeRateBps
100 (1%)
expiration
1792977329 (about 26 Oct 2026, 01:15 UTC)

What the prices imply for SPYM

If it happens
$60
−32%
Otherwise
$91
+2%
Today
$89
SPYM spot

Order book

Price (SPYM)Shares
spread0.0545

Recent trades

Loading recent trades…

Rules

Settled on UMA ↗

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Full rules and settlement
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

How it settles

  1. 1
    Deadline · 29 Oct 2026
    The words above are frozen on chain.
  2. 2
    Anyone proposes the answer
    At any time, even before the deadline, with a 500 USDC bond on UMA.
  3. 3
    24h to dispute
    Undisputed, it settles, right or wrong; a second dispute goes to a UMA vote.
  4. 4
    Redeem
    The winning leg redeems for one SPYM.

Contracts and settlement

This question mirrors the Polymarket market "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?" (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537, Polygon conditionId 0x12aa13b3da17ceae1b0a59b5d5b77121e91bb79b4bb0b52bf6543ed3f8d0953b). Its rules are copied verbatim below as published on 2026-10-08; wherever they say "this market", they mean that Polymarket market.

Nobody can edit the frozen words, including Polymarket. The proposer posts a 500 USDC bond plus UMA’s 250 USDC final fee, both returned if their answer stands, on UMA, the oracle Polymarket also uses, through Polymarket’s adapter code, redeployed unchanged on Base. A first dispute re-opens the question; a second goes to UMA’s token-holder vote, and whoever was wrong loses their bond. A disputer posts the same bond and fee, more than most positions here are worth.

Emergency override: the adapter’s admin can flag a question and resolve it manually one hour later, with any payout, over whatever UMA said. Today that admin is a key we hold (adapter 0x006B05…19e665 (opens in a new tab)).

Polymarket’s own result has no effect here. The two are expected to agree because the wording is the same.

Oracle
0x006B05…19e665 (opens in a new tab)
Question id
0xef24fe3b8f21d4b36de9bff9eff18b0dd0811f6edab2fad085205cda1cd5d0c3
Condition
0xd7a8a3adbf572f4bcac90f9341f599c87f605a72932e53462eb1144950eff4a4
Exchange
0x74E465…f7d4C7 (opens in a new tab)
Collateral
wtSPYM (opens in a new tab)
  • Settles through Polymarket's UMA adapter (unmodified) on UMA's Optimistic Oracle. The question text is frozen on chain and copies Polymarket's rules word for word. Anyone can propose the answer at any time, even before the deadline, with a 500 USDC bond plus UMA's 250 USDC final fee (both returned if the answer stands); undisputed for 24h it settles, right or wrong, so a wrong or early proposal must be disputed (a disputer posts the same bond and fee); disputed it goes to UMA's token-holder vote. Polymarket's own result has no effect here. The adapter's admin can flag an unresolved question and resolve it manually one hour later — an emergency override over UMA's answer, disclosed because it exists.
  • The Polymarket probability shown is for reference only. It is not traded here and does not settle anything here.
  • wtSPYM is an upgradeable token controlled by its issuer. Every position here depends on it.
  • Dividends accrue into wtSPYM as backing and flow to whichever leg wins. These legs decompose total return, not price.
  • A contingent claim on a security is a derivative on a security. This is a proof of concept.