Resolves 1 Jan 2027 · 73 days

COIN if the CLARITY Act is signed into law in 2026

Resolves 1 Jan 2027 · 73 days

5.2%Chance from Polymarket ↗94.8%

Amount

If it happens—

OtherwiseNothing

YES17×

No wallet in this browser? or open in MetaMask.

Paid out by a verified contract

Shares contract ↗ (opens in a new tab) · Exchange ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Paid out before: Bitcoin reaches $88,000 between Sep 28 and Oct 4, 2026 resolved NO; our test wallet redeemed its NO shares on chain. Payout transaction ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Min $0.01 · Pays in COIN (tokenized, on Base) · Fund with USDC or COIN

Fills now or not at all; the signature expires in 10 minutes. COIN here is wtCOIN on Base; dollars at $168.98 today.

Signal: none yet — prices match Polymarket

The prices match Polymarket’s odds ↗ (5.2%), so they imply today’s price either way. A gap shows once someone disagrees.

The signal over time

Loading the history…

Details

How it’s derived

A YES share pays one COIN if it happens and nothing otherwise, so its price is roughly the chance it happens times what COIN would be worth then. Divide out the chance and what is left is the market’s value of COIN given that it happens. The same for NO, with the chance it doesn’t.

If it happens: YES 0.0515 (mid) ÷ P 0.0515 = 1.00× spot ≈ $169
Otherwise: NO 0.949 ÷ (1 − P) 0.949 = 1.00× spot ≈ $169

How far to trust it

Chance (P): 5.2% from Polymarket, as of just now. It is a reference: not traded here, settles nothing here. Their book: bid 4.9%, ask 5.4% (0.5 points wide).
Leg prices: The midpoint of this book: YES 0.052 COIN (bid 0.047, ask 0.056, 0.9 points wide); NO is the rest of one share.
Spot: $169 from a DEX route quote of the token into USDC on Base. It only turns the multiples into dollars.
Updated: Just now; refreshed every 20 seconds.
Sensitivity: One point of P moves the “if it happens” value by about 19%.

Order book

Price (COIN)Shares

Loading the book…

Recent trades

Loading recent trades…

Rules

Settled on UMA ↗

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Full rules and settlement

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

How it settles

1
Deadline · 1 Jan 2027
The words above are frozen on chain.
2
Anyone proposes the answer
With a 500 USDC bond on UMA.
3
24h to dispute
Undisputed, it settles; a second dispute goes to a UMA vote.
4
Redeem
The winning leg redeems for one COIN.

Contracts and settlement

This question mirrors the Polymarket market "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?" (https://polymarket.com/event/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026, Polygon conditionId 0x9cb23d04b2ded06147482076688b69b487a8d982c63ebdda2ab3678cf27cf390). Its rules are copied verbatim below as published on 2026-09-30; wherever they say "this market", they mean that Polymarket market.

Nobody can edit the frozen words, including Polymarket. The proposer posts a 500 USDC bond plus UMA’s 250 USDC final fee, both returned if their answer stands, on UMA, the oracle Polymarket also uses, through the same adapter contract Polymarket uses, unmodified. A first dispute re-opens the question; a second goes to UMA’s token-holder vote, and whoever was wrong loses their bond: if you hold a leg a wrong answer would hurt, the dispute window is yours.

Emergency override: the adapter’s admin can flag a question and resolve it manually one hour later, with any payout, over whatever UMA said. That power exists in Polymarket’s adapter as deployed (0x006B05…19e665 (opens in a new tab)).

Polymarket’s own result has no effect here. The two are expected to agree because the wording is the same.

Oracle: 0x006B05…19e665 (opens in a new tab)
Question id: 0x42e000f23e5ca31a16f50e3fd02d130696ed576392e54c5afaec627f81c794dc
Condition: 0x6bb971213c2522a714657bbbb17da28a047d8539d30d9a34de636084d678495c
Exchange: 0xc8648C…b8F8AF (opens in a new tab)
Collateral: wtCOIN (opens in a new tab)

Settles through Polymarket's UMA adapter (unmodified) on UMA's Optimistic Oracle. The question text is frozen on chain and copies Polymarket's rules word for word. After the deadline anyone can propose the answer with a 500 USDC bond plus UMA's 250 USDC final fee (both returned if the answer stands); undisputed for 24h it settles, disputed it goes to UMA's token-holder vote. Polymarket's own result has no effect here. The adapter's admin can flag an unresolved question and resolve it manually one hour later — an emergency override over UMA's answer, disclosed because it exists.
The Polymarket probability shown is for reference only. It is not traded here and does not settle anything here.
wtCOIN is an upgradeable token controlled by its issuer. Every position here depends on it.
Dividends accrue into wtCOIN as backing and flow to whichever leg wins. These legs decompose total return, not price.
A contingent claim on a security is a derivative on a security. This is a proof of concept.