Closes 1 Jan 2027 · 66 days

COIN if Bitcoin reaches $100,000 in 2026

Closes 1 Jan 2027 · 66 days

18%Chance from Polymarket ↗82%

Paid in wrapped COIN

Spend up to

Otherwise1.18× what you spend0.01442 COIN≈ $2.33 today1.18× what you spend unless Bitcoin reaches $100,000 in 2026

If it happensNothingNothing if Bitcoin reaches $100,000 in 2026

You spend $1.96 ·

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Paid out by a verified contract

Shares contract ↗ (opens in a new tab) · Exchange ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Paid out before: Bitcoin reaches $88,000 between Sep 28 and Oct 4, 2026 resolved NO; our test wallet redeemed its NO shares on chain. Payout transaction ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Min $0.02 · Pays in COIN (tokenized, on Base) · Fund with USDC or COIN

Pay at most0.01235 COIN$2.00

At today’s offers0.012061 COINavg 0.8343

Price cap0.8543 COINPolymarket 0.825most a share can cost

Fee0.000025 NO shares0.17%

Avg 0.8343 COIN a share (≈ $135)

Fills now or not at all; the signature expires in 10 minutes. COIN here is wtCOIN on Base; dollars at $161.94 today.

Order fields

side: 0 (buy)
tokenId: 7373553318135520815854273813752080177426194160736348054013809565401690340374 (NO of this market)
makerAmount: 12349760800000000 = 0.0123497608 wtCOIN, the most you pay
takerAmount: 14456000000000000 = 0.014456 NO, what you buy
feeRateBps: 100 (1%)
expiration: 1793017300 (about 26 Oct 2026, 12:21 UTC)

Signal: none yet — prices match Polymarket

The prices match Polymarket’s odds ↗ (17.5%), so they imply today’s price either way. A gap shows once someone disagrees.

The signal over time

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Details

How it’s derived

A YES share pays one COIN if it happens and nothing otherwise, so its price is roughly the chance it happens times what COIN would be worth then. Divide out the chance and what is left is the market’s value of COIN given that it happens. The same for NO, with the chance it doesn’t.

If it happens: YES 0.176 (mid) ÷ P 0.175 = 1.00× spot ≈ $163
Otherwise: NO 0.824 ÷ (1 − P) 0.825 = 1.00× spot ≈ $162

How far to trust it

Chance (P): 17.5% from Polymarket, as of 16s ago. It is a reference: not traded here, settles nothing here. Their book: bid 17.0%, ask 18.0% (1.0 points wide).
Leg prices: The midpoint of this book: YES 0.176 COIN (bid 0.166, ask 0.186, 2.0 points wide); NO is the rest of one share.
Spot: $162 from a DEX route quote of the token into USDC on Base. It only turns the multiples into dollars.
Updated: 16s ago; refreshed every 20 seconds.
Sensitivity: One point of P moves the “if it happens” value by about 6%.

Order book

Price (COIN)Shares

spread0.02

Recent trades

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Rules

Settled on UMA ↗

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

Full rules and settlement

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

How it settles

1
Propose any time
Anyone, with a 500 USDC bond plus UMA’s 250 USDC fee. The words above are frozen on chain.
2
24h to dispute
Undisputed, it settles, right or wrong; a second dispute goes to a UMA vote.
3
Redeem
The winning leg redeems for one wrapped COIN.

Trading closes 1 Jan 2027.

Contracts and settlement

This question mirrors the Polymarket market "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?" (https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-before-2027, Polygon conditionId 0xdaa4866bae18be58c5a79d2aeeffd035ec78f1bb49dbd88f72993997778a990f). Its rules are copied verbatim below as published on 2026-10-09; wherever they say "this market", they mean that Polymarket market.

Nobody can edit the frozen words, including Polymarket. The proposer posts a 500 USDC bond plus UMA’s 250 USDC final fee, both returned if their answer stands, on UMA, the oracle Polymarket also uses, through Polymarket’s adapter code, redeployed unchanged on Base. A first dispute re-opens the question; a second goes to UMA’s token-holder vote, and whoever was wrong loses their bond. A disputer posts the same bond and fee, more than most positions here are worth.

Emergency override: the adapter’s admin can flag a question and resolve it manually one hour later, with any payout, over whatever UMA said. Today that admin is a key we hold (adapter 0x006B05…19e665 (opens in a new tab)).

Polymarket’s own result has no effect here. The two are expected to agree because the wording is the same.

Oracle: 0x006B05…19e665 (opens in a new tab)
Question id: 0xb32a9a59b9dbedc432ce8cea214000c64a36bd9f7edec687f255523cab3aeeb9
Condition: 0x5fb012f7bef4aad911cf71a07386d628c4a8587cdc10e2c0294c27d4e87dba25
Exchange: 0xc8648C…b8F8AF (opens in a new tab)
Collateral: wtCOIN (opens in a new tab)

Settles through Polymarket's UMA adapter (unmodified) on UMA's Optimistic Oracle. The question text is frozen on chain and copies Polymarket's rules word for word. Anyone can propose the answer at any time, even before the deadline, with a 500 USDC bond plus UMA's 250 USDC final fee (both returned if the answer stands); undisputed for 24h it settles, right or wrong, so a wrong or early proposal must be disputed (a disputer posts the same bond and fee); a first dispute re-opens the question and a second goes to UMA's token-holder vote. Polymarket's own result has no effect here. The adapter's admin can flag an unresolved question and resolve it manually one hour later — an emergency override over UMA's answer, disclosed because it exists.
The Polymarket probability shown is for reference only. It is not traded here and does not settle anything here.
wtCOIN is an upgradeable token controlled by its issuer. Every position here depends on it.
Dividends accrue into wtCOIN as backing and flow to whichever leg wins. These legs decompose total return, not price.
A contingent claim on a security is a derivative on a security. This is a proof of concept.